TRUMP’S PARTY
This is a year of turmoil for the GOP,
with possible disaster at the polls in November. But both of the two main
parties have experienced debacles before and come back. What are the odds
of that happening this time?
David Brooks painted a positive
outcome in his column, “The Post-Trump Era”.
Rather than gloom, it predicted rebirth and boundless futures; the piece
began, “This is a
wonderful moment to be a conservative.”
Brooks argued that, “For decades now the Republican Party has been
groaning under the Reagan orthodoxy, which was right for the 1980s but has
become increasingly obsolete.” Donald Trump, however, has
blown that model apart; Reaganesque stagnation is no longer acceptable.
Brooks now draws on the models of Thomas Kuhn
and envisions a paradigm shift. The old
orthodoxy is shattered. Donald Trump,
bold yet thoughtless, provides no alternative.
Instead, for Republicans, this will be a moment of fundamental examination,
of reshaping. “The great question is not, Should I vote for Hillary or sit out this
campaign? The great question is, How do I prepare now for the post-Trump era?”
This will start with what
Brooks refers to as “mental purging”, a casting off of old ideas. New notions will center on nationalism;
compassion (“Trump is loveless….the Republican Party will have to rediscover a
language of loving thy neighbor.”); and “a worldview that is accurate about
human nature,” including diversity. At
the end of this process there will be a new GOP: “Nobody knows what it will be, but it’s
exciting to be present at the re-creation.”
There is historical
precedent for this argument. Both
parties have suffered catastrophes, landslide defeats, and persevered. Following the 1964 Goldwater episode, the
Republican Party underwent a process much like Brooks described, and came back
with two winning elections under Nixon, and then the Reagan revolution.
There is, however, another alternative
perspective, the
possibility that this will be an historic game changer in
a less positive direction.
In a Politico article, Michael Hirsh provided deep insights about the
GOP frontrunner. Hirsh pointed out that
what Trump does, above all, is rebrand:
he takes existing buildings, steaks, wines, beauty pageants, anything
and everything, and stamps his name on them.
But this not only makes them profit centers within his corporate domain,
it changes their identity. No longer
individual entities, they are now part of the world of Trump, both in practical
terms and in the public’s eye. Hirsh
explains, “The Trump Organization is a global trademarking
factory”, and cites 515 different bodies that have become, simply, Trump.
But
the master’s greatest project, his stroke of genius, is a work whose scope
dwarfs anything he has attempted before: rebranding of the Republican Party as a Trump
enterprise. As Hirsh indelicately put
it, “we can add one more entity to the Trump Marks list: the Trumpublican
Party, LLC.” Detailing the scope of this
achievement, he pointed out, “Trump accomplished this
rebranding so fast that Republicans still don’t seem to understand what
happened to them.”
Evidence supports this proposition. Ivanka Trump, no political pundit of any
repute, nevertheless nailed something crucial when she told Breitbart, “From
Day One, my father set the agenda for what the whole party is talking about.” Far more important, in the public’s mind the
rebranding is an accomplished fact.
Donald will probably get the nomination, and if so, he becomes the
literal symbol of the party. Even in the
unlikely case that he is not heading the ticket, Trumpism will remain the
dominant impression of what the GOP stands for, if nothing else because the
Democrats will see to that.
There
is enormous danger here for the Republican Party. Minorities are gone. A rising wave of immigrant voters are
gone. A large proportion of women are
lost, at least for this election. At
least, if not more dangerous, is the situation with youth. In a recent piece in the New York Times
Upshot Toni Monkovic argued, “The potential of losing an election is one thing, but as polling numbers
suggest, the Trump brand could weigh on the G.O.P. for a generation.” Thus, political scientists have long
theorized that young voters are more malleable, that their long-term
affiliations can be shaped by a defining episode like this one.
And the signs are
clear. In a USA Today poll, respondents
under 35 picked Hillary Clinton over Mr. Trump, 52-19. If the focus narrowed to whites only, her
lead was still substantial, 45-26.
Monkovic reported, “A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Mr. Trump
and Mrs. Clinton essentially tied among people 40 and older, but with those
under 40 preferring her by a nearly 2-to-1 margin…. In USA Today
Republican pollster Frank Luntz called it ‘a chasm of disconnection that
renders every prominent national Republican irrelevant with the voting bloc
that could control campaigns for the next 30 years.’”
The Republican Party faces a
boisterous future. David Brooks predicts
a season of glorious tumult. Another
alternative is dealing with rebranding as the party of Trump. Either way, the next few years are not going
to be easy if you’re a Republican.
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